Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?

Monetary policy

Social Security and Household Portfolio Allocation

The entitlement to social security retirement benefits is a major component of aggregate household wealth. This paper focuses on the impact of social security annuities on household portfolio allocation, extending existing optimizing models of portfolio allocation to explicitly consider the role of social security. The model is implemented using cross-section data. The partial equilibrium impacts of changes in social security benefits on portfolio choice and composition are small but precisely measured. The general equilibrium impacts on asset markets of a social security policy change (focusing onlinks between social security and dynamic wealth accumulation and between social security benefits and private pension benefits) are generally much larger.

Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle

Real estate markets go through both physical cycles (demand and supply) that affect rental growth rates and financial cycles (capital flows to real estate) that affect property Prices (Mueller, 1995). This study develops a rental growth rate hypothesis based on a market’s position in the physical (demand-supply) market cycle. Using data from fifty-four office and industrial markets in the United States over a thirty-year period, an aggregated national average rental growth rate was calculated for each point in the cycle. An ANOVA test for differences of means found that the national average rental growth rates at each point in the cycle were statistically different. The results show local demand and supply, which interact to affect occupancy, are major determinants in rental growth rates. This research should help investors move from using a single rental growth rate for multiple year forecasts, to using yearly cycle driven rental growth rate estimates in their discounted cash flow projections.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND REFORM: LESSONS FROM THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN

The Japanese economy has had four recessions since 1990. Also the U.S. economy has been in difficulties during more recent years but there are clear signs of an economic recovery. While Japan’s difficulties are not the mirror image of those in the United States, it is interesting to note that the same mix of policy responses might support recovery in Japan: aggressive monetary action to address deflationary pressures, fiscal policy oriented around controlling spending and long-run tax forms that also provide near-term stimulus, and structural reforms to improve capital market functioning. This policy mix to help revive the Japanese economy will involve politically difficult decisions. In this context, the role of the United States should be to acknowledge the steps that have already been taken in Japan and call attention to those steps that remain to be carried out.The Japanese economy; economic crisis; macroeconomics